Skip to main content

Is the sky really falling?

Drink driving is something of a problem in New Zealand, as it is in most countries. But the problem has an inherent problem of its own.

"Road safety officials admit their multi-million dollar awareness campaigns aren't working.

Despite the Government ploughing $3.3 million into anti-drink-driving campaigns this year alone, the number of offenders is skyrocketing and is now at record levels." NZ Herald

The problem with expecting advertising campaigns to make a difference to the incidence of drink driving is fundamental. The campaigns are designed to change attitudes to drink driving. If you set the wrong objective you will nullify the outcome. Changes in attitude I have written about this before.

The problem is that the pious, 'thou shalt not drink and drive' message works for people who don't drink and drive - it reinforces their behaviour. It has no effect on those who do and so, therefore, is a waste of a stupendous amount of money.

On the matter of the cost of anti-drink driving campaigns, it is disingenuous only to include the advertising expenditure. The actual resource assigned to the problem is monumentally more when you factor in the number of people employed to produce the toothless propaganda - who should certainly be wondering about their tenure (and whom the new government should be focusing their forensic accounting). I have been told by a former senior executive of the LTSA that the cost of answering political questions in the House of Parliament cost thousands of hours of research - which points to another fundamental issue that Drink Driving is an easy emotional touch point for the 'law and order' debate.

In the Herald report it is hysterically reported that: 'the overall number of drink-drivers soared from 25,133 in 2003 to more than 34,700 in the year to November 30"
However, when so many more police resources are assigned to random stop checks then it is obvious that the figures will increase correspondingly. If there were more fisheries officers then the number of fish, crustacean and shellfish poachers caught would skyrocket. The Herald also skews the figures by quoting the 'raw' data. Rather than quoting the number of successful prosecutions, rather than, effectively, accusations reinforces the idea that: "If you torture statistics for long enough they will confess to any thing."

It might be worthwhile to ponder that iatrogenic disease is one of the biggest killers in the developed world, including New Zealand. It is estimated by some to be third largest killer in the United States.

The terms iatrogenesis and iatrogenic artifact refer to adverse effects or complications caused by or resulting from medical treatment or advice. In addition to harmful consequences of actions by physicians, iatrogenesis can also refer to actions by other healthcare professionals, such as psychologists, therapists, pharmacists, nurses, dentists, and others. Iatrogenisis is not restricted to conventional medicine and can also result from complementary and alternative medicine treatments.


It would be fair to assume that New Zealand experiences a similar incidence of iatrogenic disease, resulting in death. But the problem with this killer is that the bad guy isn't a drunk driver (unless we're talking Wanganui obstetricians). When the good guys are the bad guys it is not so black and white - in fact it is too hard to contemplate, so we don't.

The bottom line is that we have to be wary of the motives of pressure groups when they spin statistics. The subtext of the story about drink driving promotes fear - using language like 'epidemic' is the same kind of UnSpeak that resulted in the disgraceful Homeland Security legislation in the US. Create a fearful population and get more control. It has nothing to do with the reality of the situation.

Bureaucrats and propagandists who have consistently failed to communicate anything meaningful to the public that makes a blind bit of difference to outcomes (other than an increase of the behaviour they say they are aiming to decrease) had better not ask for more money to squander. There's a recession on.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Johnny Bunko competiton

The Great Johnny Bunko Challenge from DHP on Vimeo . There's a young chap in Indiana, one Alec Quig , who has written to me about creating a career based on a polymathic degree, from which he has recently graduated. He's an interesting young man and his concerns about going forward in life are the anxieties we all face at crossroads in our lives when we are forced to make choices. Dan Pink's latest book The Adventures of Johnny Bunko: The Last Career Guide You'll Ever Need might help: "From a New York Times, BusinessWeek, and Washington Post bestselling author comes a first-of-its- kind career guide for a new generation of job seekers.There's never been a career guide like it.the fully illustrated story (ingeniously told in Manga form) of a young Everyman just out of college who lands his first job. Johnny Bunko is new to parachute company Boggs Corp., and he stumbles through his early days as a working stiff until a crisis prompts him to find a new job. St

Ze Frank thinks so you don't have to

Ze Frank appeared on my radar when I saw his presentation among the excellent TED Talks videos . This morning I was reading Russell Davies planning blog in which he referred to a clip by Ze Frank - Where do ideas come from. Here's the transcript: "...Hungry Hippo licks Aunt JEmima [sic] writes, "Are you ever gonna break into song again? Are you running out of ideas?" Hungry Hippo licks Aunt JEmima, that's a good question. I run out of ideas every day! Each day I live in mortal fear that I've used up the last idea that'll ever come to me. If you don't wanna run out of ideas the best thing to do is not to execute them. You can tell yourself that you don't have the time or resources to do 'em right. Then they stay around in your head like brain crack. No matter how bad things get, at least you have those good ideas that you'll get to later. Some people get addicted to that brain crack. And the longer they wait, the more they convince themse

Sexist Advertising and stereotypes

Advertising lives in the short-form world. Because mass media is so expensive the 30 second commercial is conventional and because there is so much clutter simplified signals are essential to 'cut through'. One form of communication short-hand used as a default is the stereotype - "A stereotype can be a conventional and oversimplified conception, opinion, or image, based on the assumption that there are attributes that members of the "other group" have in common. Stereotypes are sometimes formed by a previous illusory correlation, a false association between two variables that are loosely correlated if correlated at all. Though generally viewed as negative perceptions, stereotypes may be either positive or negative in tone." In the 1950's and 60's when men dominated advertising stereotypical impressions of women as inferior or subservient were not only commonplace but usual. It was normal to show women as housekeepers, largely because most wer